On Christmas Day, a tragic plane crash occurred in Kazakhstan involving an Azerbaijan Airlines flight that was en route from Baku to Grozny. The Embraer 190 aircraft crash-landed, resulting in the deaths of 38 individuals, while 29 passengers survived. Most of those on board were Azerbaijani nationals, along with several Russians and citizens from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
Initial reports indicated that the flight had to divert to Kazakhstan due to heavy fog. However, U.S. and regional experts have raised concerns that the aircraft may have been hit by Russian anti-aircraft fire, as Russian forces were active over Grozny at the time, responding to a Ukrainian drone attack. Evidence, including images of damage to the plane, lends credence to this theory.
Ukrainian officials have expressed their belief that improper management of airspace by Russia contributed to the crash, with some suggesting that the plane suffered damage from Russian air defenses. Commentary from aviation security experts indicates that indications of anti-aircraft fire may be present based on the condition of the wreckage.
The situation is reminiscent of the 2014 Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 disaster, which also involved air defense systems and resulted in significant loss of life. Following the crash, data from tracking services showed that the Azerbaijani flight had stopped reporting its location upon entering the North Caucasus, hinting at possible GPS jamming.
Images from the crash site revealed extensive damage to the aircraft, particularly at the front, while the tail remained relatively intact. Some military analysts have noted that markings on the tail resemble damage typically caused by surface-to-air missiles.
While investigations are ongoing, the Kremlin has refrained from drawing conclusions about the cause of the crash, and authorities in Kazakhstan have stated that it is premature to assign blame. In the wake of this incident, Israel’s national airline, El Al, has suspended flights to Moscow until a safety assessment of Russian airspace can be completed. The aircraft’s manufacturer, Embraer, expressed condolences and commitment to supporting the investigation.