The last few months have been marked by considerable volatility for public entities associated with Elon Musk and the space technology sector. In contrast, SpaceX—valued as the most important private, venture capitalist-backed firm—has demonstrated remarkable stability during this period.

Recent Valuation and Market Performance

In December, SpaceX reached an impressive valuation of $350 billion following a significant secondary share sale, where insiders transacted $1.25 billion in stock at a price of $185 per share. Currently, shares of SpaceX are reportedly trading at approximately $229 on the private share marketplace, Forge. This increase is viewed as a typical market response post a large tender offer, which usually establishes a price baseline for future share transactions, according to Howe Ng, Forge’s head of data and investment solutions.

Comparative Analysis: SpaceX vs. Tesla

The disparity in performance between SpaceX and Tesla in the public market is stark. Following SpaceX’s tender offering, Tesla shares reached an all-time record of about $489 before experiencing a significant drop to around $220 in recent days. Factors contributing to this decline include reduced sales in key markets such as China and Europe, along with increasing backlash from a segment of Tesla’s customer base regarding CEO Elon Musk’s political engagements.

After the recent downturn, Tesla shares bounced back slightly after former President Trump expressed support for Musk on social media, although the overall impact on stock prices remains uncertain.

Public Market Challenges for Spacetech Companies

Publicly traded companies in the spacetech industry are experiencing their own fluctuations. For example, Rocket Lab, known for its launch services and satellite design, witnessed its share price soar to a peak in January but subsequently lost approximately 40% of its value. Similarly, Intuitive Machines faced a sharp decline in its stock value after a mishap with its lunar lander.

SpaceX also faced challenges recently, as its Starship rocket, central to its interplanetary plans, exploded shortly after launch, causing a temporary halt in nearby air traffic. Although such setbacks would typically lead to a drop in a public company’s stock price, the private market for SpaceX remains insulated from such immediate valuation fluctuations.

Future Outlook for SpaceX

While private company valuations can ultimately decline due to faltering performance or deteriorating future prospects, SpaceX has maintained a steady upward trajectory. Its $350 billion valuation in December represented a 67% increase from its previous value of $210 billion earlier in June.

SpaceX traditionally conducts semi-annual buyback events, acquiring shares from employees, which could provide further insights into its valuation. Investors may anticipate an updated evaluation reflecting the latest projections about the company’s potential following any such event this summer.