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The history of quantum computing has been marked by a series of breakthroughs on the frontiers of materials and computer science. For more than 40 years, scientists have been working to apply the principles of quantum mechanics to build computers that can achieve almost unimaginable leaps in performance over today’s machines. Nevertheless, practical quantum computers remain out of reach. News of this week’s breakthrough suggests the finish line may finally be in sight, potentially paving the way for the first practical machines at the turn of the decade.
Google has revealed for the first time that it has successfully overcome the instabilities inherent in quantum systems and addressed the incoherence, or “noise”, that typically overwhelms machines as they perform large-scale calculations. Like the first controlled nuclear chain reaction at the University of Chicago in 1942, this was the first concrete demonstration of what had long been predicted in theory and a threshold moment for the industry.
However, even though the era of quantum computing is just around the corner, it remains difficult to predict exactly when its effects will emerge or how far-reaching they will be. Five years ago, Google claimed it had achieved “quantum supremacy,” the point where quantum computers could solve problems that were impossible with classical machines. But new programming techniques have shown that today’s supercomputers can remain competitive for longer than expected. Even when the quantum age finally dawns, most computing will continue to be done on silicon-based machines, with only the most complex and specialized tasks moving to quantum systems.
It is not yet clear how wide a range of problems this new form of computing can address. Quantum machines based on the strange behavior of tiny particles are expected to be particularly useful in simulating nature’s own subatomic processes, paving the way for breakthroughs in fields such as materials science and drug discovery. .
It is also expected to quickly break some of today’s most widely used encryption methods, adding urgency to global efforts to implement new forms of encryption.
But for many other things, it is difficult to predict how large a performance improvement the quantum algorithms developed so far will yield. There is still room for debate as to how much “quantum acceleration” we will see, especially in the early stages, when it comes to solving complex optimization problems or accelerating machine learning.
Advances in artificial intelligence may also weaken the impact of quantum computers. Demis Hassabis, Nobel Prize winner and head of Google DeepMind, said it will soon be possible to use AI to model complex systems in nature on classical machines, and that the need for quantum computers will soon be possible. However, this view is disputed by many quantum experts.
Still, the advances Google unveiled this week represent a key moment in its long-standing pursuit of radical new forms of computing. And even if the first results of the quantum age are limited to a relatively narrow field, they have the potential to change the world.
Google hopes to be able to build a full-scale quantum computer for $1 billion by 2030. Company executives argue that even 10 times that amount would be a small price to pay for a machine that could potentially help treat cancer.
Such high hopes have inspired researchers for decades and encouraged some of the world’s richest technology companies to make big and expensive bets on quantum computing. . It may not be long before their vaunted predictions are finally put to the test.
