Trump’s First 100 Days: A Historical Overview of Stock Market Performance
As of April 25, 2025, President Donald Trump’s initial 100 days in office have yielded the most substantial stock market decline at the beginning of a presidential term since the 1970s. The S&P 500 recorded a significant decrease of 7.9% during this period, making it the second worst performance since Richard Nixon’s presidency.
A Historical Context of Stock Market Performance
According to CFRA Research, Nixon’s term saw a 9.9% decline in the S&P 500 during his first 100 days in 1973, a dip triggered by several economic strategies aimed at curbing inflation, which ultimately contributed to the recession lasting from 1973 to 1975. This historical comparison underscores the unusual market reactions at the onset of Trump’s administration.
Market Trends Post-Election
The stock market’s response to Trump’s election victory was initially optimistic, with the S&P 500 achieving a 3.7% increase between Election Day and Inauguration Day. Investors were hopeful that Trump’s business background would pave the way for tax reforms and reduced regulations. However, this initial enthusiasm was short-lived as market performance took a downturn.
Key Factors Behind the Decline
In stark contrast to the positive trajectory following the election, the market faced a sharp decline as President Trump prioritized campaign promises that startled investors, particularly regarding trade policies. The announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs led to a swift market reaction, resulting in a 10% drop over just two days and temporarily pushing the market into bear territory. Although Trump later moderated this stance by allowing a 90-day renegotiation period for trade deals, concerns about inflation and recession risks have persisted.
Market Predictions and Investor Sentiment
Reflecting on the current climate, Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, stated, “Everyone’s looking for this bottom here. I’m still thinking it’s a bear market rally, a near-term bounce kind of thing. I’m not convinced we’re out of the woods yet, with the lack of clarity and continuing uncertainty in Washington.” This sentiment highlights the cautious approach that many investors are maintaining amid ongoing market volatility.
Outlook for the Remaining Days
With only two trading days left in Trump’s first 100 days, there remains the possibility for the S&P 500 to rebound. A resurgence could potentially position the market’s performance closer to George W. Bush’s first 100 days in 2001, which saw a 6.9% decline. Currently, the S&P 500, which peaked at 6,144.15 on February 19, ended at 5,525.21, effectively erasing all gains made since the November election.
This analysis underscores the significant impact of political events and decisions on market performance. The coming weeks will be critical as investors assess the longer-term implications of the current administration’s policies.