The Impact of Tariff Policies on U.S. Stocks: A May Overview
In April, U.S. stocks experienced a decline for the third consecutive month, largely driven by uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff policies. Market volatility peaked following the announcement made on April 2, which saw an estimated $6 trillion wiped off market value due to new tariffs.
Although mid-April brought a temporary rebound thanks to a 90-day pause on some tariffs, the momentum was halted when a report indicated that U.S. GDP contracted in the first quarter. Consequently, the S&P 500 ended April with a decrease of 0.8%.
As we head into May, tariffs are expected to remain at the forefront of discussions in financial sectors. The focus now turns to several key companies whose quarterly earnings reports are anticipated to shed light on their strategies amidst these challenges.
1. Apple (AAPL)
Apple is set to release its first-quarter earnings on May 1, with particular attention on how tariffs might influence its financial outlook. The company previously secured tariff exemptions during the 2018 trade tensions with China and has taken steps to diversify its manufacturing by moving operations to countries like India and Vietnam. Despite this, a significant portion of Apple’s products still originates from China, putting it at risk amidst escalating economic tensions.
Currently, Apple’s stock has dropped by 15% since the start of the year, and investors will be keen to hear how the upcoming tariffs could affect sales and overall operations during the earnings call.
2. Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia is expected to announce its quarterly results later this month, with investors closely monitoring potential impacts on its sales to China and related AI investments. The company previously forecasted a revenue hit of up to $5.5 billion due to tightened U.S. restrictions on sales to China, further compounded by major cloud service providers halting AI data center expansions, reflecting a dim economic outlook.
Nvidia shares have seen nearly a 19% decline this year, influenced by Wall Street’s shifting expectations following the company’s recent performance, which, despite surpassing estimates, has not resulted in positive stock reactions.
3. Walmart (WMT)
Walmart is set to report earnings on May 15 and is well-positioned to navigate tariff-related challenges. The retail giant has reportedly used its market strength to negotiate better pricing from suppliers, which smaller retailers may not replicate. Notably, Walmart’s executives had previously warned Trump about the potential impacts of tariffs on consumer goods.
While the tariffs announced in April are unlikely to impact Walmart’s immediate first-quarter sales, Wall Street will be particularly interested in any guidance the company provides regarding future projections. To date, Walmart’s stock has increased nearly 8% this year.
4. ExxonMobil (XOM)
ExxonMobil’s first-quarter earnings are also on the horizon, and the ongoing trade policies will likely weigh heavily on the report. The company’s strategies to lower energy costs while maintaining deregulation efforts to boost fossil fuel production must balance against the risk of recession heightened by the trade war.
With oil prices at a four-year low, ExxonMobil’s financial outlook could provide insights into how external factors are impacting the energy sector. Since 2023 began, Exxon’s stock has declined about 2%.
5. Coinbase (COIN)
Coinbase is also scheduled to report its earnings in May amidst a growing interest in cryptocurrency following recent supportive regulations introduced by the Trump administration. Despite the overall decline in cryptocurrency prices, Coinbase forecasts significant growth in subscription and services revenue, with an anticipated increase of up to 50%.
Investors will be eagerly listening for details on how Coinbase plans to engage with forthcoming legislative developments regarding cryptocurrency in Washington. As of now, shares of Coinbase have decreased roughly 18% this year.